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Comprehensive Preparation/Response Paradigm For Natural Disasters, Terrorism, Accidents

Global Crisis Response System (GCRS)
Dr. J. Morgan Thomas

 

About:  A paradigm for development of a basic emergency, terrorism, accident, natural disaster or catastrophe contingency response system towards planning capability, preparedness, security enhancement, effect reduction, and mission completion.

 

Includes:  Listing of principles, strategies, and stages in the preparation and response paradigm. Highlights major segments of the system, some of which are often minimized or overlooked, and identifies major issues without fully outlining each segment.

 

Index

   Basic Principles

1.  Identification

2.  Early warning

3.  Prevention 

4.  Preparation

5.  Response

6.  Interim stabilization

7.  Rehabilitation

8.  Reconstruction

9.  Analysis 

 

 

 We invite any contributions, comments or corrections.

 See end of document for related pages on this site

 

Introduction:  Each part is equally important in a security system or catastrophic event preparation and response sequence. Neglect of one or more major factors is one of the major problems in effective system development.  If a system is perfect in its material and operation, but the human or environmental

factors are ignored, the system is fundamentally flawed. Environmental or human

factors may in the end be found to be more disastrous to the survival of the system

than any mechanical or material provision or capability.

 

Basic Principles in Preparation and Response to Crisis

 

Primary:  Never assume that any part of the safety structure can be ignored or left uncompleted. Being caught unprepared will be far costlier than the cost of any preparation or response.

 

preparation:                            1.   Prepare for any and all contingencies.

 

communicate:                         2. assure communication efficiency and availability at all times and

                                                     be capable of communication with all levels at all

                                                     times for updating and situation assessment.

 

separation of authority          3  always separate tasks and delegate authority to

                                                     ensure full preparation of all stages.

 

authority defined                   4  always have responsibilities and lines of authority

                                                     and communication well defined and agreed

                                                     upon.

 

never favor or repayment     5  always match positions for skill and knowledge,

                                                    never as privilege, flavor or repayment.

 

involve many                         6  involve other  institutions, groups, governments.

                                                   Never carry all of the burden alone.

 

smooth out problems            7  iron out problems in communication between departments

                                                     or agency conflicts  before having to depend on this   

                                                     communication when decisions and  action  must be taken.

 

expertise availability            8  know who can be called upon and how to access in order to

                                                     provide expertise in any area to be affected.   

 

constant updating                 9  constantly update all individuals with new technologies,

                                                     procedures, threats and changes in organizational structure,

                                                     rules and expectations.

 

maximum flexibility            10 do not let predetermined decisions outweigh the situation on the

                                                     ground. Always be open to new possibilities based on changed

                                                     circumstances or a better way of approaching the problem.

 

independent analysis          11 constantly monitor and assess ongoing operations  and provide

                                                     for independent analysis of all stages of the system before,

                                                     during and after preparation and response.

 

distributed for immediacy  12 always have more than enough material and transport

                                                     immediately ready and always provide for distributed storage of

                                                     all materials, transport for immediate access.

 

backups and alternatives   13  provide for backups and alternative plans for all operational

                                                     segments.

 

safeguard and protect        14  always safeguard civil liberties, human decency, basic rights

                                                     and adhere to international conventions.

 

Segments of  a Comprehensive Preparation and Response System

 

  1.   identification

  2.   early warning

  3.   prevention

  4.   preparation

  5.   response

  6.   interim stabilization

          stabilization

          emergency support

          mop-up

          interim authority

  7.   rehabilitation

  8.   reconstruction

  9.   analysis 

 

       Note: Sub items below are not all inclusive but suggestive of type of

                 operations and special areas of concern under each title

 

IDENTIFICATION

   critical first stage in the development of any system.  It is the assessment and             

        understanding phase which allows the successful implementation of the

        prevention, preparation and response phases.

 

   ten stages

   1  event analysis

       separation of all types of events - each has its own time line, effects, and

         countermeasures

       specification of different types of sub events or processes

       causative factors

       determination of significant features of each sub event

       cross referencing of similar features which can be used across events

   2  modeling of event

       modeling of stages of events and sub processes

       assessment of timing and sequence

       assessment of interaction of elements

       identification of all accompanying occurrences

       highlighting of vulnerabilities of system and ways to strengthen

   3  identification of population, social structure, material, environment affected, how

          affected, and zones of danger/damage

   4  identification of historical reoccurrence, responses to the event or attending events,

          and effects and reasons for successes and  failures

   5   scenario development, computerized, field exercise and simulation of all possible events

          and response modes including accompanying occurrences, side effects, feedback

          mechanisms

   6   countermeasures

        identification of  direct and indirect countermeasures, materials and application

           techniques, and effects of each.

   7  funding

       assessment of funding needed to fulfill each stage of system development

       identification of different resources from which to obtain help including private, nonprofit,

       local, state and federal levels and how to obtain

   8  laws and regulations

       determination of legal structure needed at all governmental levels for procurement,

         expropriations, rights of way, funding, etc. to support all possible operations.

       It is often too late to develop or pass legislation, gain permits, etc. which will

       delegate the requisite authority and scope of duties under the pressure of the event.

 

EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

   Usually seen as part of prevention but often side lined and not developed to its fullest  

   potential. The warning system it not only used in warning of immanent events but also

   operates during the response and subsequent stages to warn of possible side effects,        

   unexpected or unplanned for reactions, and buildup/lack of processes or materials which

   need special attention. This is actually the nerve center of each stage of the system,

   although the warning system is constituted differently for each stage.

 

   This part of the security system contains at a minimum, the following items:

   1.  identification of those occurrences or early warning signs which precede an event

   2.  development and updating of effective communication system

   3.  constant upgrading of system with new technologies

   4.  components of warning system and timing of surveillance including

           detection equipment for radiation and bio/chemical agents where possibly involved

   5.  development of a constant surveillance system

   6.  efficient warning mechanisms

   7.  system of periodic checks as to validity and impermeability of system

   8.  test of effectiveness of communications and preparedness of response to alerts

   9.  development of warning signals for "after shocks", sub events or processes  within

          each stage

 10.  backup and alternatives if warning system breaks down or encounters unforeseen  problems

 11.  analysis of  warning signs and decision structure

 12.  types of intervention and scheduling for repair or replacement

 13.    development of standby status and procedures while repair or replacement activated

 14.  chain of alert status and procedures

              scheduling of personnel

              analysis of early warning signs

              procedures at each stage  

 15.  use of simulations and games to occasionally test the response

          of the system to a crisis and to test the lines of communication

 16.  development of legislation, permits, land, air, water use concerning installation,

          support and use

 17.  development of increased prediction of events or inner phase occurrences

 18.  constant analysis of operation and success and failure of system after each event or sub event.

 

 

PREVENTION OF EVENT

 

Prevention operates at all stages

 

   prevention of event itself or mitigation of force and action to decrease or

      eliminate the event, portions of event, or side effects

   assessment of possibilities and capabilities for prevention

   alternative means of prevention, removal or transference, elimination, channeling, diversion,

      break up, strengthening, counter force, localization, etc.

   timely action to institute preventive action

   prevention of all possible deleterious effects of event or sub events

   development of scenarios and simulations to assess the effectiveness of preventive action

 

PREPARATION

   Prevention of the event itself or any of its side effects does not lessen the need

   for preparation for response.

  

   All the structures needed must be developed here. There will be little time in the response

   and rehabilitation stages to develop these. Anything not developed will cost time in indecision

   and confusion which may not be correctable within the given time frame

 

   1. command, control and management

   2. strategy and overall planning

   3. material and support

   4. communication

   5. education

   6. knowledge base

   7. monitoring assessment

   8  analysis

   9. statutes, licenses, rules, permissions

 

   1. command, control and management

       In the event of emergency, everyone must know what to do, who to report to,

       and the general command structure.  However, flexibility must be built into the

       whole system. Any rigidity in the system at any point may lead to failure

       even in the accomplishment of the simplest tasks.

 

       Most important is the need to lessen social, cultural and historical pressures

       operating within the organization which might create conflict or ineffectiveness of  

       operations in preparation or response.  Individuals having conflicting roles to play or an

       inability to work successfully with each other or within the overall confines of the

       system may be the determining cause of an accident or breakdown.

 

       structure

          development of  chain of command

          centralized planning

          centralization of authority, planning, communication, analysis

          changes in chains of command in all possible scenarios

          development of a center for administration and communication and analysis

          ability to effectively and efficiently centralize and control preparation, response,

            containment and reconstruction

          be sure that inter group or inter agency cooperation is assured at all levels

             and at all times

          have clear lines of responsibility and authority in place and agreed on by all

             involved at every level

          clarification between preparation and  response structures

       functions and specific roles

          division of responsibility

          functions delineated

          accountability

          types and modes of supervision for each stage of the system

              including backup systems

          prevention of duplication of effort

       communication

          see communication in box

       administrative procedures

          rules of behavior

          personnel functions

          training, refresher courses, incentives

          development of forms

          development of efficient reporting procedures

          analysis

          rules for replacement

       extra system support

         initiation of fund raising and the accumulation of sources and funds necessary to carry out 

             the preparation and response

          development of extra system support which can be called upon in an emergency

       planning

          scheduling of administrative phases

       timetable

          timetable of procurement of materials and arranging of personnel for each type of

          phase/event

       enforcement, legal and appeal structure

          initiation of the legal structure needed and the passing of laws, institution of rules

            needed to provide legal structure for each element of the preparation and response

            structure

          legislation of laws, obtaining of permits, rights of way, etc. covering area involved,

            materials involved in the prevention and response, land regulation, provision of types of

            facilities and response

         development of rules and behavior at all levels

       testing through scenarios and simulation and field tests of management techniques,

          centralization and command capability

       independent expert overview

         rules for incorporating outside help, enlistment of personnel

         backup checks on effectiveness of overview system

         external  checks and assessment unencumbered with chain of command

 

   2. strategy and overall planning

       assess what is possible given the available resources and what is needed 

       detail all that has been discovered during the identification stage

       develop overall plan for each stage

       determine all possible scenarios needed and requirements for each

       availability of needed components to respond immediately

       have all materials and supplies stockpiled in strategic places

       updating, installation, training and use of newer methods, materials

       periodic measures to be taken to reinvigorate, replace, check different parts

         of system and system as a whole.

       know the possible risks involved

          keep abreast of the new developments in reduction of risk, capability assessment,

            preparedness, response, aftermath reduction of causalities or system breakdown,

            reconstruction.

       identify and locate all risk areas and provide for containment

       establish multiple means of keeping all members and groups involved in each stage of the

          process informed, up-to-date.

       detailed analysis of risk in each area and the proper

       gain countermeasure support from all levels of government including local councils

       assessment of all of the potential risks of a particular operation or occurrence in the    

         system and the updating of all individuals connected with the event.

       determination of methods and materials needed to protect health, lives, property, environment 

       backup system for each critical function and critical materials

         triggers for initiation

         timing and necessity of initiation of backup systems

         in very high vulnerability or very critical functions, design and provide a double backup

         fix number and type of backup systems for different disruption scenarios

         provision of  production, surveillance and maintenance of  backup

         updating of surveillance and maintenance scheduling

         provide distributed storage and transport for backup system and replacement of all materials

         constant updating of all materials

         planned obsolescence of materials

           existence of newer better versions

           difficulty of getting parts and continued maintenance of replacement and

              normal maintenance parts

       alternatives are different from backups.  Backups are similar in design and function with

         the base system while the primary alternatives are different ways of approaching a problem

         Alternatives are usually part of the system which have possible dual functions. The design

         of any response should include a number of different ways to produce a similar effect 

         - provision of multiple correction or of alternative modes to fix a problem. The user or       

         coordinator of any system should be familiar enough with the fundamental parts to

         effectively utilize alternatives.  Special attention must be given to this both in terms of possible

         material loss and the need for alternatives to accomplish the same task, or in terms of an

         alternative and totally novel way of operating.

 

   3. material and support

       determination of and scheduling of supplies with backup

       develop list of suppliers and reliability

       development of supply lines and transport with backup

       determination of all materials needed

          identify possible causes of breakdown, wear, stress, disruption, weak links, aging, accidental

            change in structural elements or delivery

          initiate provision for and scheduling for testing, surveillance,  maintenance, and replacement

            stockpile at strategic points

       development of personnel supervision, and procedures for supply, materials, maintenance,

            scheduling, acquisition and obsolescence, storage and use

   4. communication

       see communication box

   5. education

       response personnel

         awareness and general knowledge of what to do and how

         development of specific skills needed

         scheduled updating of  procedures

         development of educational series covering each  part which must be

           completed depending on each individuals  position in the system.

         upgrade and ensure readiness through refresher courses and seminars to include new

           technologies, new methods of dealing with system entities,  new ways of prevention.

       public

         television, radio, computer series to help educate and prepare general public with

           regard to events

         development of  general public educational series to be used in lower and middle

            schools to provide an atmosphere of event prevention, awareness and preparedness.

   6. knowledge base

       develop easily accessed and comprehensive base of information on all levels of operation

          and for all materials

       constant updating

       assessable to all personnel depending on function, role, status

   7. analysis, assessment and monitoring

       see analysis box

   8. expertise

       have all expertise readily available and updated

       distribute lists to all relevant personnel and their next in line.

   9. protection of civil rights and dignity of population

       develop set of rules to be followed n every situation

       establish an atmosphere of legality, protection and dignity to assure compliance once response

         mode is under way.

       provide the necessary materials, facilities, personnel and mobility needed to fulfill.

 

     

RESPONSE

   All functions should be simultaneously operational since time is usually a critical factor.

   No operation should be mounted without supply and support functions in place and operational

 

   1.  Initial procedures

        evaluation of event

        evaluation of preparedness

        knowledge and data scan from all available sources

        prioritizing of areas and types of response

        flexibility of response based on need and materials, personnel

   2.  command established - both centralized and distributed

        develop plan of response or attack

   3.  communication 

         see communication box

   4.  provision of supplies and manpower

        check and activation of available supplies, material, personnel

        arrange to fill all gaps in implementation, support, backup forces

        contact resource and service providers

        activation of standing resources and manpower

   5.  maintenance of mobility

           maximization of mobility for all routes and types of transport

   6.  actions

        containment and corrective action

           activation of predetermined modes of operation

           reduction of effect

           constant evaluations of effectiveness

           provision of needed materials and emergency supplies and equipment

        safeguarding population, material, structures and environment

        directive action, avert, channel , destroy or mitigate continued actions of

            destructive forces

        prevention of within response occurrences which will increase the damage or

           necessity of added response

        containment of continuing damage

        containment of side effects - environmental, civilian reaction, retribution, power void,

           opportunism,  isolation, structural weakening, medical delays

   7.  constant in-response analysis and updating

        standardized reporting

        monitoring

        where needed, assessment and activation of alternatives or backups

        initiation of system of monitoring for warning signs of immanent breakdown

        review knowledge and delivery capability and where backups are positioned

        constant assessment of response based on need and changing circumstances

        well defined and immediate assessment of trends

   8.  search and rescue

        assessment of type of search needed

        area designations for search and rescue teams

        activation scheduling

        provision of support for search crews

           provision of basic food, clothing, tools

        constant updating of dangers in field and communication to and between all ground level

           personnel

        methods of guaranteed coverage and indication of areas covered and means to

           prevent duplication

        constant assessment of supplies needed and logistics

        replace scheduling

        methods of activating survivors and use of local population and survivors as location

          and knowledge base

        search and destroy or minimization of effect

          area sweeps

        procedures for medical care, isolation and quarantine where necessary

   9.  assessment and analysis

        see analysis box

 10.  backups, alternatives or contingency plans

        assess all backup and contingency plans and availability

        activate early warning as to indicators of possible problems in implementation of plan

 11.  overview

        constant assessment and analysis   

        independent assessment and analysis at all times

 

INTERIM STABILIZATION

   This is often the most vulnerable part of the system often overlooked or muddled

   through. Should be planned equally with other segment of the system of response.

   Interim stabilization is made up of stabilization during response and aftermath, emergency

   support of population, mop-up, and interim authority.

 

  Four Parts

    STABILIZATION

      decrease panic, fear, disorientation

      designation of safe areas and sufficient transport

      provide up-to-date news broadcasts and other communications in a format capable of

          being received and understood by affected population

      social and psychological support services

      constant communication at all levels to dispel inaccurate information

      control and preventive action to contain actions detrimental to community

      prevention of further damage, deterioration

      establish major networks of supply  including water, food, medical, fuel

      protection of natural resources - environment, protected areas, forests, water ways, wildlife

        protection, etc.

      protection and disposal of sensitive and hazardous materials        

      policing to prevent vandalism, retribution, looting, disorder, mob violence and to generally

         protect ground personnel and population

      identification and declaration of restricted zones and  activities backed up by the

          necessary enforcement

   

   EMERGENCY SUPPORT

      emergency services

         plans and decisions for wounded and the handling of causalities

      basic physical support for survivors

         provision of basic food, clothing, tools, shelter

         determination of distribution of needed support

      mobilization of transfer support

      provision and allocation of needed supplies to ward off disease, depravation,

        effects of environmental elements

      setting up of field hospitals, outpatient clinics and transport to established hospitals and care

        facilities

    

    MOP-UP

      assessment and initiation of initial steps needed to replace primary support to

         population, wildlife, environment

      provision of basic needs of the infrastructure damaged

      initiation of initial corrective actions to provide ruptured or destroyed services such

        as power, water, sewage,

      determine and provide protection against dangers such as chemicals, gases, hot 

        zones, munitions, etc.

      maintenance of solutions instituted during response phase

      prevention of accidents and further loss due to structural instability

      institution of clearing, storing, waste removal or detoxification, transport and recovery

        operations.

      protection of vulnerable or valuable public property.

 

    INTERIM AUTHORITY

    institution of interim authority which will provide support during the hours and days

      immediately after event. Must be top level and highly charismatic and capable

      since it paves the way for trust, initial building and stabilization

    development of clarity on the scope of the role to fulfill

    establishment  of laws, rules for support of authority

    supervision and clearing the way by providing support for other interim stabilization stages

    security assurances and provisions for backup if necessary

    field judicial system with independent appeal structure and adherence to international

      conventions

    guarantees that responsibility and actions taken are commensurate with risk and need

    setting up initial security and initiate confidence building measures

    establishment of reconstruction authority

    provision for hand over to reconstruction authority once established

 

REHABILITATION

   Rehabilitation deals with the human side of reconstruction.  Reconstruction is usually equated

   with the rebuilding of institutions, renewal of public services and the building of physical

   structures along with the renewal of economic, educational and general social services

   capabilities. The recovery process for individuals and families is not only physical, but

   emotional and spiritual. Physical reconstruction can not by itself provide this. Some

   institutions of society must also go through rehabilitation since the emergency and response

   process  together with side effects may have severely damaged the basis of many institutions.

 

   This process must begin immediately with the cessation of the response phase and in many

   cases must be instituted during the response itself and hence planned during the preparation

   phase.

 

   first aid, general health care, disease abatement

   repatriation of refugees, location of relatives, placement of dispossessed individuals and

      families

   finding lost pets

   interim schooling

   counseling

   burial and bereavement

   religious services and activities

   recreation for different age groups

   institution of care giving including a wide range of social services

   security assurances

   programming of radio and TV toward identification, and solace

     inform and help apply for insurance claims, governmental grants, aid, loans for rebuilding, etc.

 

RECONSTRUCTION  

   development of a reconstruction authority

   establish command and control structure

   development of plan for reconstitution of social structure and economic reconstruction

   establishment of legal, policing and other protection structure needed during stage

   assessment of physical needs of the population once the emergency status has ended

   repair of and further development of water, gas and other immediate needs capabilities

   initiation of major financial, employment, industrial, education, social services, judicial and

     other institutions

   building of physical structures needed for housing, generation of income, employment, social

     services

   assessment of long term needs and resources and capabilities available

   assessment of best methods and types of reconstruction

   development of timeline and prerequisites for each new stage of reconstruction

   education and skill training toward filling jobs necessary for the reconstruction process

   setting stage for self help and intra/inter group development and cooperation

   setting up the social mechanisms and economic base for inclusion of those dispersed by the

     event

   development of base for repayment of loans and grants for reconstruction and emergency

     services

 

ANALYSIS

    see Analysis Box

 

_________________________________________________________________

 

Multi Stage Functions

Certain functions are similar in the preparation and response stages except for time line.

These are command, analysis, communication and supply.  Secondly, in a well defined

and functioning system, the preparation stage is the simulation for the response stage.

The communications and analysis segments will be included here.

 

COMMUNICATION BOX

   Communication should be centralized and the primary unit operating at all stages

   with agreed upon delegation of command within the separate sub units.

   Make sure that communication lines are established and physical communication

   capabilities are operational at all times.  Establish alternative communication

   routes to minimize any breakdown or delay and provide open lines to all operational

   levels including a central open line for the public to call in information related to

   emergency, alert, information

 

   communication should provide:

      procedures to avoid jumbled or incomplete information, biased or too narrow in scope

      sufficient channeling to avoid overload, identification of correct target for communication,

        and speed of delivery

      separate free communication channels for fast and timely delivery of critical information 

      correct production, reproduction, backup and overlap to avoid misunderstanding

      increased coordination and a communication loop to include all involved regardless of level

   communicate in order to:

      direct the different stages of system response

      reduce confusion and time needed to respond

      clarification of orders, laws and rules affecting each stage

      increase provision of help

      warning of dangers pre and post event and precautions to be taken

      prevention of side events and collateral damage

      increase participation of population affected

      develop support and resources

      prevent and or ameliorate events and sub events

      develop for operational functions to direct, request orders, clarify, receive information

      support performance of all duties, actions to, from and within all levels

      keep all relevant personnel and bodies updated on any changes in any part of the

        preparedness system.

          within group communication involved in each stage

          between groups, interagency communication

          communication from operational personnel in field

          communication with and to affected population

          communication capabilities to expert advice if needed

          alert the public and provide public awareness of possible threats and

          countermeasures to be taken

      inform, reduce panic, misinformation in general population

 

 

ANALYSIS BOX

 

   1. goals of analysis

       (1) Analysis is a process of problem solving and event response analysis which takes into

             account historical incidents and the effectiveness of solutions and causes of failure can

             significantly reduce the effects of an event.

      

       (2) Analysis provides the data from the field in understandable form to aid in the successful

             direction of response.

 

   Never underestimate the effects of an event.

 

   2. techniques

         development of cross indexed database for historical date, case studies, research,

            recording and analysis

         constant monitoring as to effects of action taken and possible side effects

         contingency plans for monitoring in case of emergency

         constant analysis of field data to assess possible problems

         analysis of trends in all data

   3. segments of system in which analysis operates

         constant analysis and updating of all events at all stages and ongoing actions, aftershocks

         analysis and updating of backup and alternative systems for all response operations

   4. reporting and record keeping

         centralization of assessment.  

         development of standardized forms, checks

         use of checklists developed for different levels, different events, operations

         standardized reporting of accidents or events

         record keeping, ease of recording changes, mishaps, weaknesses, previous

           incidents as a basis for analysis when faced with a problem.

         timing and authority for follow-up for all events as well as regular reporting procedures

   5. types of analysis

         constant analysis of effectiveness of command, response,  methods, needs, supply lines,

           communication, safety measures, holes in response, lack of materials or support

         analysis of ongoing procedures successes/failures

         analysis of further damage due to successive reoccurrence of event or similar events

         analysis of all response elements towards improvement of lines of communication

           and cooperation

         the warning signs and awareness to impending event

         all phases which were not accomplished, could have been better, were not previously

           planned or were poorly or insufficiently planned

         identification of holes in the system which may lead to disaster

         analysis of  integrity of materials and tools, equipment

         analysis of  and special attention on failures to identify possible problems

         provision for immediate analysis of any unexpected change of status

         analysis of effects of preventative action on population, environment and on the

           capability to respond

         analysis of  an inter-related data retrieval system and the adequacy of learning, searching,

           finding answers, use in investigation, learning from previous events

   6. oversight

         external assessment by independent experts

         accountability - acceptance of responsibility and ability to give sufficient reason for actions

   7. change based on assessment, analysis and outside evaluation

         need to create the means and atmosphere for acceptance of change within different

           stages of the system.

         a well defined post crisis set of actions and rules in order to learn from the crisis

         establishment of  new rules of behavior, help individuals deal with the consequences

           of the crisis

         reassessment of the problems within the organization which may have been the sufficient

           cause or continuation of the crisis


 

(c) copyright Morgan Thomas and Global Crisis Solution Center 2004. All rights reserved